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U.S. legalization could add $250 million to Tilray’s books

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Despite delays in cannabis legalization efforts in the U.S., Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY) still has its eyes on that prize.

The company’s CEO, Irwin Simon, told investors on the company’s earnings call that if the U.S. legalized medical marijuana, it would “represent an additional $250-million opportunity for Tilray.” He based that figure on expectations that Tilray could capture 2-3% of the market if such an event occurred.

Tilray reported its earnings on Jan. 10 before the markets opened, and the stock plunged 10% based on the company’s missed expectations. The stock dropped another 3% on Monday after investors considered the company’s comments on the earnings call. 

Simon estimated that the current medical marijuana market in the U.S. is $8 billion-$10 billion, meaning a 2%-3% market share would deliver $160 million to $250 million business. Of course, cannabis can’t cross state lines in the U.S., much less country borders, but that didn’t stop Simon from speculating on the opportunity.

“We ship EU-GMP products all throughout Europe coming out of Canada, and some of the best cannabis grown today comes out of Canada … If anything is going to be legalized, it’s medical cannabis. I think medical cannabis ultimately would be sold through drug stores through the medical market and would be prescribed,” he said.

Simon also said that U.S. demand likely would require more supply of medical marijuana than is available.

Much of the call was focused on its alcoholic beverage segment, which has been growing rapidly thanks to acquisitions, but cannabis still makes up a larger percentage of the company’s revenues. However, the company’s beverage revenue is growing rapidly as it continues to make acquisitions.

Cannabis falls flat

Cannabis revenue for the company was essentially flat as sales dipped.

“Revenue from Canadian medical cannabis grew 6% despite the category being impacted by competition from the adult-use market, while revenue from Canadian adult-use decreased 18%, which was a result of our increased focus on preserving gross margin and maintaining a higher average selling price in categories with high excise tax,” Simon noted.

For example, Tilray said it was backing away from low-margin cannabis products, like vapes and infused pre-rolls, and prioritizing other categories at the expense of market share.

High hopes for hemp beverages

The company still sees potential in the cannabis beverage industry, despite THC drinks being expensive and restricted to being sold in cannabis stores in Canada.

“If we could sell that today in beer stores, if we could sell it on tap, how big a business that would be?” Simon mused. However, he did say he believed that sales would pick up as a result of “dry January.”

At the same time, hemp-derived beverages continue to be a growing market in the U.S. Ty Gilmore, president of Tilray Beverages North America, said the company anticipates that the broadest opportunity for such products would be brick-and-mortar stores, like convenience and liquor stores, rather than direct-to-consumer sales.

“There’s a big national chain that’s leaning into HDD9 in a really, really strong way. We absolutely are exploring and are taking part of DTC, but we see the much bigger opportunity in brick-and-mortar,” he said. “When you look at the consumer and what’s happening in this segment, and you can look at some big chains in Louisiana or what’s happened over the last couple of years in Minnesota, you can clearly see that there’s a consumer demand in brick-and-mortar stores to go to be able to look at brands.”

Simon made it clear he wished he could sell THC-infused beverages in the U.S., but in the meantime, the company will make hemp beverages instead. He also thinks Trump will be more friendly to the industry and may reduce regulations because he will look at the potential tax revenue.

“My thing is the Trump organization will look at this here just because of the dollars that will contribute to bringing in more to the tax dollars and also eliminating from the illicit market and eliminating all the confusion and helping with safe banking,” Simon said.



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Hemp beverages beat craft beers when it comes to tariffs

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President Donald Trump’s on again, off again tariffs have rattled many industries, including the regulated cannabis industry that will be affected as vape hardware and packaging prices get hit with tariffs in shipments from Asia. But according to a new report from Whitney Economics, one segment could actually benefit: hemp beverages.

While hemp beverages are sold in aluminum cans and will face increases in container costs from the tariffs, other parts of the supply chain are less affected by tariffs and the products are sold domestically. Add to that the surging popularity of the products, and you have a winning formula.

Hemp drinks have hit the beverage industry by storm. Major distributors are stocking them even as states look to ban intoxicating hemp products. Some states are even carving out exceptions for the beverages in those proposed bans.

Another advantage, according to Whitney Economics analyst Beau Whitney, is that all of this is happening as the craft beer business struggles. Alcohol consumption has been experiencing declines in sales, and the once-hot trend of craft beers is already looking like the moment is fading. The Brewers Association recorded 399 closures in 2024 compared to 335 new breweries, indicating a shift in the industry’s trajectory. The latest tariffs are adding another headache for those brewers.

In addition to the aluminum used in cans, Whitney noted that beer companies also face tariffs on stainless steel, which is used in brewing equipment. Beer businesses are also dependent on hops, which are also tariffed.

“On the other hand, the Trump tariffs could represent a significant upside opportunity for the hemp beverage industry, which has been experiencing strong growth for several years now,” wrote Whitney. “As alcohol and beer sales decline, hemp beverages have filled in the gaps in demand. The popularity of hemp cannabinoid beverages is just at the beginning of its ramp.”

Whitney Economics noted that the hemp beverage sector has come on strong, especially since the market opened up in Minnesota in 2022.

“Recent surveys in Texas, Illinois and Tennessee indicate that hemp beverages are capturing an increasing amount of market share among hemp retailers, distributors and manufacturers,” Whitney wrote in a recent newsletter.

Hemp beverages tend to be more expensive than craft beers. A four-pack of infused seltzer can range from $9.99 to $16, while a 12-pack of craft beers often runs $20 or less. If the craft beer makers raise their prices in response to the increased expenses from tariffs, hemp beverages no longer look quite so expensive.

So, while hemp beverages are fighting in various states to keep from getting banned, at least the group gets one gift in the form of avoiding most tariffs.



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New study explores how THC-infused drinks are shaping drinking habits

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Data collection company MoreBetter announced a new study aimed at understanding the impact of THC-infused beverages on alcohol consumption, mood and overall quality of life. The company said it is looking for 2,000 qualified participants to provide daily feedback over three weeks about their infused beverage and alcohol consumption patterns, as well as self-assessments on their overall quality of life.

Infused beverages have become the hottest thing in cannabis. It seems every week, more brands are introducing some form of seltzer or juice infused with either regulated THC or a hemp-based THC. However, there has been little research into the effects or benefits of consuming these products.

Participants in the study must be over the age of 21 and willing to share their day-to-day experiences with using infused beverages. Individuals can check if they’re eligible for the study at this website: mystudi.es/bevstudy.

The study is sponsored by several leading beverage brands, that will collectively supply study participants with free infused beverage products to consume throughout the study.

“By collecting consumer-reported outcomes from thousands of consumers, over a multiweek basis, we provide brands and industry advocates with the real world data they need to understand how infused beverages are impacting consumers’ quality of life,” MoreBetter COO Tyler Dautrich said.

Alcohol sales have been trending downward as interest in about THC-infused beverages has increased. Some of the largest alcohol distributors, such as Total Wine & More and Spec’s, now include large selections of infused beverages. The brands, however, want to gain insight into how consumers are using their products and what perceived lifestyle benefits or wellness outcomes might result after consumption.

“The cannabis plant should be better researched, and we are hopeful that this is just the first step in learning how these products can improve people’s lives as acceptance, access, and consumption of infused beverages expands across the US,” said Adam Terry, CEO of Cantrip, also a sponsor of the study.

The study will mainly focus on canned THC-Infused seltzers, but MoreBetter will also investigate 750ml bottles used as mixers, dry powder mixes and 1.5-2 oz “shots” to study how various doses and form factors impact consumers’ perceived experiences.

“As more consumers explore mindful options, real-world data like this will be essential in understanding how THC-infused beverages are enhancing quality of life and transforming social rituals. Our partnership with MoreBetter isn’t just about validating our brands – it’s about leading a cultural shift with integrity, innovation, and style,” said Evan Eneman, CEO and co-founder of Iconic Tonics.



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Organigram joins beverage race with U.S. acquisition

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Organigram Global Inc. (NASDAQ: OGI) (TSX: OGI) told investors it is buying Collective Project Limited for approximately C$6.2 million ($4.3 million). Add in potential milestone payments and potential earnout payments, and the value of the deal could rise to C$24 million ($16.6 million) for the twelve-month periods ending September 30, 2025, and September 30, 2026.

Organigram said that the deal immediately gives it entry into the fast-growing cannabis beverage category. The company noted that the products are already available in mass retail. U.S. alcohol chains such as Specs, Total Wines and Top Ten Liquors sell numerous hemp-derived THC beverages and there is speculation that major convenience and big box retail are considering pilot testing the products.

The company said that Collective Project is already listed at Top Ten Liquors in Minnesota and Total Wines in North Carolina, South Carolina and Indiana. Organigram also sees the acquisition as a springboard for its own line of beverages as well. While Collective Project has planted flags in the U.S., it was founded in Hamilton, Ontario, in 2013. The company also has its own line of craft drinks that are top sellers in Canada.

“The acquisition of Collective Project marks yet another strategic milestone towards Organigram’s global leadership ambitions. Not only does this acquisition represent our first commercial entry into the fast-growing hemp-derived THC beverage market in the U.S., it also fast tracks our entry into the cannabis beverage category in Canada, a category that we believe is on the cusp of growth at home as well,” said Beena Goldenberg, CEO of Organigram.

Collective Project is known for its collaborations with the art community. It has featured over 2,000 artists from 40 countries on its products.

“We are pleased to be working with Organigram on this transaction as not only Canada’s leading cannabis company but also one that is deeply committed to high-quality products backed by R&D and science-backed innovation,” said Matt Johnston, Collective Project co-founder.

Organigram said that by the end of the year, it expects that products will also be distributed in Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, and Alabama. In Canada, the products are currently available in Ontario, British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Nova Scotia with distribution in additional provinces to follow in the coming months.



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