Oklahoma, Oregon and California are the best-positioned states to benefit from the interstate commerce that would result from federal marijuana descheduling, according to a white paper published this month by the University of Nevada Las Vegas. The analysis said those states having the cheapest large-scale production costs and the highest per-capita economic potential, putting them in a better position that other state-legal cannabis markets.
The paper, authored by California-based economist Dr. Robin Goldstein of the Cannabis Economics Group at the University of California Davis, is based on the simple premise that the cannabis companies able to produce the most marijuana the cheapest are those that stand to dominate the national industry, should cannabis ever be removed fully from the list of federally controlled substances.
“The locations most likely to win in a national price competition will be places where weed can be grown and sold most cheaply,” Goldstein wrote in the report, which he titled “Where Will Weed Win?”
“The first and biggest effect of interstate commerce will be immediate competition between states on price. The initial juxtaposition of domestic and imported prices might be shocking in some states,” Goldstein wrote. “When a producer in Illinois, whose legal weed with 25% THC is fetching $1,500 per pound from Illinois retailers in the gated market, faces competition from 30% THC weed from California at $150 per pound, the legal Illinois producer encounters immediate incentives to (try to) protect its business livelihood by lobbying the state to take protectionist measures and prevent cheap out-of-state retail competition.”
Goldstein analyzed the costs of production in every state with a functional marijuana market and ranked the top 25 in order as far as which he believes are most likely to benefit from full federal cannabis legalization, with Oklahoma – perhaps surprisingly to some – in the top spot, followed by Oregon at number two, and California picking up the bronze medal.
Goldstein said Oklahoma has proven to be “America’s most efficient legal weed system” and has “vast long-term potential,” compared to New York, which he ranked as number 24 on the list.
“Low-end wholesale prices are falling 40% per year and and may not stop until they are America’s lowest,” Goldstein wrote. “The success of the no-nonsense, small-government approach to weed regulation taken by the Great Plains states like (Oklahoma and Montana) has left wonks in #24 New York scratching their heads and planning vacations to dude ranches.”
By contrast, Goldstein wrote that New York “has been a lesson in how not to legalize.”
“Retailers are finally sprouting up around cities, but they can only sell licensed weed, much of which is schwag. Illegal smoke shops already sell great imported weed,” Goldstein wrote.
The state in the final ranking of #25 was Alaska, which Goldstein found had “dim prospects for interstate exports.”
“California has the lowest wholesale prices, at $150 per pound. Illinois’ lowest price in the same time period, by comparison, is $1,555 – more than 10 times higher,” Goldstein also noted in his analysis. The state with the second-lowest cannabis wholesale prices was Michigan, he found.
Wholesale prices, however, were only one factor the economist analyzed; he also looked at retail prices in each state, a metric under which Oregon took the top spot, followed by Oklahoma and then Colorado.
But most importantly, the ranking list was determined by per capita economic potential, which gives more weight to states with smaller populations, like Oklahoma’s 4 million residents as opposed to California’s 39 million, combined with cheap production costs and other business expenses.
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