In a state once seen as America’s most promising medical marijuana market, Florida cannabis operators are now grappling with plummeting prices and slowing sales despite an aggressive push to open new dispensaries — and the scene is about to transform as regulators nearly double the number of licensed operators.

Prices fell 30% in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking an accelerating decline in the state’s medical market, according to a new equity research report from Zuanic & Associates.

The steep drop comes amid a broader retail expansion push and follows voters’ rejection of recreational legalization, despite a $140 million campaign backed by market leader Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (OTCQX: TCNNF).

“It is probably too early to make a call on (Florida), although our initial hypothesis is that price competition will intensify,” Zuanic noted, citing expanded cultivation capacity and softer demand trends.

To nobody’s surprise, Trulieve set the pace for growth, opening 29 new stores this year – a 22% jump from 2023 – and which accounts for 35% of all new Florida dispensaries in 2024. The company still dominates the market overall, with 38.2% of the entire state’s cannabis flower sales volume in the third quarter.

Curaleaf Holdings Inc. (OTC: CURLF) has maintained its runner-up position in both flower and non-flower sales, despite seeing its flower market share slip to 10.2% from 11.2% last year. The company added five stores in 2024, bringing its total to 66.

Not all MSOs are keeping up. While Trulieve and Cresco Labs (CSE: CL) (OTCQX: CRLBF) have posted strong sales per store, others like Verano Holdings Corp. (OTC: VRNOF) and Ayr Wellness Inc. (OTCQX: AYRWF) are struggling. Verano (Müv) saw per-store flower sales drop 25% to 1,470 ounces in the third quarter, well below the state average of 2,310 ounces.

“The mix of price pressure and more stores in a declining market will likely squeeze some operators,” according to the report.

The market’s decline has picked up speed throughout the year, swinging from 14% growth in the first quarter of 2024 to an 18% drop in October/November.

Some sleepers are putting up numbers. Privately-held Jungle Boys is outperforming many public companies, with its 11 stores averaging 4,900 ounces of flower sales in the third quarter – surpassing even Trulieve’s 4,060 ounces per store.

Cresco seems to have found some success by focusing on operations rather than expansion, after previously doubling its store count. Without adding to its 33 stores, the company doubled its flower market share to 5% in third quarter, while growing total flower sales by 102% from last year.

Inventory tells part of the story, with some retailers offering three times as many flower options as competitors. Planet 13 Holdings Inc. (CSE: PLTH) (OTCQX: PLNH), which entered Florida through its VidaCann acquisition in May, narrowed its per-store volume gap but stocks just 8 types of whole flower per store. That’s well behind Cansortium’s (Fluent) 25 options and Verano’s 15, plus additional ground flower products. Planet 13 aims to double revenue if locations can reach average state sales figures, CFO Dennis Logan told investors last month.

Private operator Sunburn Cannabis doubled its flower market share to 3% in the third quarter, while more than doubling non-flower sales to 3.8%. Starting with 11 stores last year, Sunburn now runs 16 locations and sells 3.29 ounces of flower per store – handily beating the state average.

Meanwhile, some operators are simply falling behind. Beleaguered Green Dragon, despite operating 39 stores, reported just 530 ounces of flower sales per store — less than a quarter of the state average. However, recent word from its CEO seem to signal a revitalization sometime in the near future.

At the end of the day, Florida’s medical marijuana market, which analysts project will reach $2.8 billion in sales this year, will continue to be viewed as a bellwether for the maturing industry so as long as recreational reality exists somewhere in the distance.

Now the market faces its biggest shakeup since 2017, with 22 new medical operators approved in late November. But it’ll still take time and money to stand any of those up, much less to the scale of some of the current operators. Who’ll be left in the pool a few years from now is anybody’s guess.