Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (OTC: TCNNF) reported Tuesday that its third-quarter revenue grew 3% to $284 million, falling short of analysts’ expectations amid heavy investment in Florida’s adult-use legalization campaign.

Wall Street analysts had expected revenue of $291.55 million for the quarter ending Sept. 30, according to estimates from nine analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance. The company’s retail sales made up 95% of revenue, with gross margin improving to 61% on lower sales from 52% in the same period last year.

The results come as Florida voters decide on Amendment 3, which would allow adults 21 and older to purchase cannabis for recreational use. The measure needs 60% approval to pass.

“As voters in Florida cast their ballots across the state today, there is an opportunity to make history,” CEO Kim Rivers said in a statement, noting the company’s 156 Florida stores position it well if recreational sales are approved.

The company posted a net loss of $60 million, wider than its $25 million loss a year earlier. The higher loss largely reflects $48 million spent supporting the Florida campaign during the quarter.

Trulieve in its news release gave no look-ahead, but analysts project revenue will reach $301 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2025, they expect revenue of $1.24 billion, representing a 4.2% increase from their 2024 estimate of $1.19 billion.

Campaign finance records show that at this point, Trulieve’s invested more than $140 million total in backing Amendment 3, easily the most expensive legalization effort to date. Rivers previously told Green Market Report the high costs stem from Florida’s strict signature-gathering requirements across counties, which alone cost about $40 million.

If passed, existing medical operators could begin adult-use sales after a six-month transition period without needing new licenses. However, industry experts disagree on timing. Some believe sales could start almost immediately under current medical rules, while others suggest implementation could take up to two years given Gov. Ron DeSantis’s opposition.

Rivers committed to entering the recreational market next spring, should the vote go green.

During the quarter, Trulieve opened 15 new dispensaries in Florida and Pennsylvania. It now operates 220 retail locations nationally, with 30% outside Florida. The company also launched adult-use sales at three Ohio locations.

The multi-state operator reported $30 million in operating cash flow but negative $7 million in free cash flow after campaign spending. It ended the quarter with $319 million in cash and short-term investments.

As Election Day kicks off, Florida will soon know whether it’ll stand up a fully fledged recreational cannabis program next year. And Trulieve Cannabis Corp. (OTC: TCNNF) has been a driving force behind the Yes on 3 campaign, pouring millions into the effort.

If the measure passes, CEO Kim Rivers said the company is shooting for a May 5, 2025, launch date, as ascribed in the measure’s language, with preparations already underway.

“This doesn’t happen overnight,” Rivers told analysts and investors Tuesday during the company’s third-quarter earnings call, describing what she called “a four-dimensional jigsaw puzzle.”

For example, the company conducted retail pilot studies to test higher customer traffic scenarios and completed major technology overhauls, including upgrades to its web platform and SAP systems.

“None of these things are flashy or necessarily really exciting, but they provide the infrastructure to enable us to handle transactions in a faster manner,” Rivers said.

The company maintains more than 3 million square feet of production capacity in Florida and operates 156 dispensaries across the state. Rivers said the company’s “modular” production facilities can “quickly ramp” capacity if Amendment 3 passes.

Rivers also said that pricing would be key when it comes to converting Florida’s illicit market consumers into legal customers, drawing on the company’s early strategy in medical markets.

“The whole goal here is to get folks off of the street and out of the black market and into a regulated environment,” she said.

Trulieve hasn’t slowed its aggressive store expansion, opening 14 new Florida locations in the quarter. Rivers described “robust modeling” that considers traffic counts and anticipated demand, noting that older locations often have space limitations.

“Some of our earlier locations were very restricted in terms of where we could go,” she explained, such as fewer registers or smaller storage areas versus newer locations.

“We’ve done a whole bunch of modeling as it relates to retail efficiencies… I feel like we’re well positioned and candidly, those investments serve us kind of regardless.”

Rivers pointed to the company’s experience with Ohio’s recent recreational launch as valuable preparation. Traffic increased 60% at Trulieve’s three Ohio locations following the August start of adult-use sales. Florida’s cannabis market could reach $6 billion in annual sales.

“We’ve made significant investments in production, retail and technology in preparation for catalysts such as this one,” Rivers said.

Floridians get to free the weed at the ballot box Nov. 5. What’s at stake? Scores of weed arrests, and at least $200 million per year in tax revenue for a massive, newly legal economy. 

Also, tens of millions of dollars more in criminal justice savings from fewer arrests, and prison sentences. 

That $200 million figure comes from a 2023 State of Florida economic analysis.

 A Leafly News analysis adds in the estimated cost of 66,000 annual arrests in Florida for weed, plus tax projections based on legalization in other states. The net fiscal impact could be many millions of dollars more.

A June Fox News poll has Amendment 3 passing with 66% of the vote. Eligible Florida voters should ensure they’re registered to vote by October 1.

The current penalties of pot prohibition

‘Marijuana is legal enough in Florida,’ some voters will say. ‘There’s already legal medical cannabis and hemp.’ 

There’s also prohibition. Prosecutors filed some 66,000 counts of possession of marijuana charges in Florida in 2023, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

“Florida is arguably among the leading states in marijuana-related arrests — if not the leader,” said Paul Armentano at NORML.

Holding a sack is a first-degree misdemeanor, and can get you a year in prison. By contrast, Florida Amendment 3 legalizes up to 3 ounces of weed and 5 grams of hash. Amendment 3 reads: “The non-medical personal use of marijuana products and marijuana accessories by an adult … is not subject to any criminal or civil liability or sanctions under Florida Law.”

It would be a game-changer in a state where a sandwich baggy of weed (over 20 grams) can get you a third-degree felony and five years in prison in Florida. The number of pot charges per year is increasing, reports state. 

How much does Florida pot enforcement cost?

So how much does 66,000 weed arrests cost Floridians? State analysts left it out.

Leafly estimates the bill for those charges alone start at $13.2 million.

Each misdemeanor has to take a minimum of one police hour to issue, and one court hour to charge, notice, and arraign. Cops and court officials aren’t cheap. They can easily run $100 per hour when you factor in salary, benefits, and pension. 

Forgoing most weed arrests should save millions to tens of millions of dollars in law enforcement costs for weed per year.

Pro-legalization activists say the true number can be 10 times higher. 

In 2010, the pro-weed group Drug Policy Alliance calculated that each pot arrest costs a state $1,000 to $2,000. That’s $99 million per year in Florida cops writing pot tickets and courts serving paperwork.

California analysts predicted “tens of millions” in court savings before Prop 64 passed in 2016. California is roughly twice the population of Florida.

Floridians missing out on tax revenue, too

States with pot prohibition not only fork out dough to persecute potheads. Floridians forgo the tax revenue of economic activity already occurring on their block. That’s where the number really bites.

Legal weed would face Florida’s 6% state sales tax, plus local taxes, and fees.

Florida’s state economists see legal weed as generating “Based on other states’ experiences, … at least $195.6 million annually in state and local sales tax revenues once the retail market is fully operational.”

That $200 million may prove low. The conservative legislature would probably pass “sin taxes” on pot. Benchmarked to California revenues, Florida would rake in $500 million in annual taxes from legal weed.

What can Floridians do with $200 million in revenue?

Passing Florida Amendment 3, would result in revenue and savings that are hard to fathom. One easy way to measure it: the savings and tax revenue could pay for at least 2,000 new teachers, at the going rate.

So that’s some back-of-the-envelope math for when people say, “Why legalize weed in Florida, isn’t it legal enough?”

Read on for more details. 

Counting more costs: Felonies, defense attorneys, and prison cells

When Leafly says “millions to tens of millions of dollars” in cops and court savings, we’re being conservative. Prohibition places measurable and immeasurable burdens on its targets and society at large. We’re not counting felony cases, nor the cost of defense attorneys, and imprisonment or supervision.

For example, a felony arrest can cost the defendant $10,000 to $15,000, stated Christopher Cano, Executive Director of Suncoast NORML. That money pays for pre-trial intervention rehab to expunge a first offense. 

“I know this for a fact because it happened to me in 2014,” Cano stated.

And then there’s the prison and probation costs, too.

• About 3 out of 50 people heading into a Florida prison cell each year go in for holding weed or selling weed, according to state reporting.
• About 140 people sit in a Florida state prison for pot. 
• Each prisoner costs $88,000 for the prison bed, guards, and food each year, the state of Florida estimates.

A substantial reduction in pot prisoners yields millions of dollars more in savings.

We’ll keep updating this post as more info comes to light.

Sources

—Florida Financial Impact Estimating Conference – Adult Personal Use of Marijuana – Serial Number 22-05 July 13, 2023

—‘Florida could legalize marijuana, but people arrested still face tough road’, Tampa Bay Times, July 11, 2024, via the Florida Office of the State Courts Administrator

—California Prop 64 summary and text with fiscal analysis

—Drug Policy Alliance, 2010, NY Prohibition Costs

—Florida sales tax rate

—Cost of Florida prison beds

—Florida school teacher salary