Cannabis investors are a hardy bunch. They have been beaten down time and time again, but continue to hang tough with the sector despite continuous markdowns in the stock valuations. This week’s news of a delay in the rescheduling process has slapped the stocks down yet again.
The AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (Nasdaq: MSOS) tanked as much as 10% today after yesterday’s news that the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration would hold an administrative hearing in December; lately the ETF was still down more than 9% to trade at $6.36.
Despite the potential rescheduling of cannabis from a Schedule I drug under the Controlled Substances Act to Schedule III this year, the MSOS ETF is down 30% for the past six months.
Since rescheduling fired up the hopium pipes earlier this year, the MSOS ETF is up 29%. The top price over the past 12 months was $11.36 in April, but since then it has been one long slide.
Morgan Paxhia, co-founder and managing director of Poseidon Investment Management, said the firm has been “cautiously optimistic about the prospects of rescheduling reaching final rule in 2024.”
He noted that, according to data from cannabis data firm Headset, 92.45% of comments provided to the DEA were in favor of the schedule change.
“Further, per Gallup, the majority of people view cannabis to be the least harmful among five substances,” Paxhia said. “Despite the continued will of the people, it appears difficult for D.C. and the DEA to rehabilitate from their addictive drug, the taxpayer’s dollars.”
Paxhia also cited the possibility of change at the federal level as the result of a lawsuit brought by Boies, Schiller and Flexner.
The DEA scheduled the administrative hearing for Dec. 2, ensuring that the process will not be completed before the presidential election in November. There is currently no specific deadline for completing this stage of the rulemaking. As Green Market Report previously reported, the timeline for this hearing will depend on various factors and could last just a few months or extend to longer than a year.
TD Cowen Washington Research Group wrote in a note to members Tuesday morning that the DEA hearing news “likely leaves the final rescheduling decision to whomever wins in November. We believe both candidates are likely to let rescheduling advance, though we have more confidence in Kamala Harris than in Donald Trump.”
Sam Armenia, vice president at C21 Investments Inc. (OTC: CXXIF), said, “This will obviously put near-term pressure on the entire basket of stocks, as it removes this expected near-term catalyst of (Schedule III) final rule from play. Unfortunately, the sector’s performance is mostly tethered to the hope/delay of federal reform enactment, despite improving fundamentals in many cases.
“Ultimately, it is critical for investors in the sector to assess all the risks, and potential time horizons, and perform full due diligence on companies when partaking in a speculative growth industry that is so tied to the federal reform of cannabis laws,” Armenia added.
Cannabis equity analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates also asserted that the process will take time: “Post the hearing, the (administrative law) judge will need to write a report, and once that is completed the DEA/DOJ will need to write the Final Rulemaking and publish it in the Federal Register. Then 30 days must pass before it is officially implemented.”
On top of that, legal challenges may be made during the 30-day period, “and a judge in the circuit court of appeals will need to decide whether to issue a stay or not. We doubt the process will be completed before Inauguration Day,” Zuanic said.
Zuanic expects stocks to remain range-bound with continued volatility – and notes that this could be a good opportunity to buy. If the MSOS ETF tanks to $5 a share, he even added that he would be in line to buy.