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OK, OR and CA cannabis companies could be big winners under federal marijuana legalization

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Oklahoma, Oregon and California are the best-positioned states to benefit from the interstate commerce that would result from federal marijuana descheduling, according to a white paper published this month by the University of Nevada Las Vegas. The analysis said those states having the cheapest large-scale production costs and the highest per-capita economic potential, putting them in a better position that other state-legal cannabis markets.

The paper, authored by California-based economist Dr. Robin Goldstein of the Cannabis Economics Group at the University of California Davis, is based on the simple premise that the cannabis companies able to produce the most marijuana the cheapest are those that stand to dominate the national industry, should cannabis ever be removed fully from the list of federally controlled substances.

“The locations most likely to win in a national price competition will be places where weed can be grown and sold most cheaply,” Goldstein wrote in the report, which he titled “Where Will Weed Win?”

“The first and biggest effect of interstate commerce will be immediate competition between states on price. The initial juxtaposition of domestic and imported prices might be shocking in some states,” Goldstein wrote. “When a producer in Illinois, whose legal weed with 25% THC is fetching $1,500 per pound from Illinois retailers in the gated market, faces competition from 30% THC weed from California at $150 per pound, the legal Illinois producer encounters immediate incentives to (try to) protect its business livelihood by lobbying the state to take protectionist measures and prevent cheap out-of-state retail competition.”

Goldstein analyzed the costs of production in every state with a functional marijuana market and ranked the top 25 in order as far as which he believes are most likely to benefit from full federal cannabis legalization, with Oklahoma – perhaps surprisingly to some – in the top spot, followed by Oregon at number two, and California picking up the bronze medal.

Goldstein said Oklahoma has proven to be “America’s most efficient legal weed system” and has “vast long-term potential,” compared to New York, which he ranked as number 24 on the list.

“Low-end wholesale prices are falling 40% per year and and may not stop until they are America’s lowest,” Goldstein wrote. “The success of the no-nonsense, small-government approach to weed regulation taken by the Great Plains states like (Oklahoma and Montana) has left wonks in #24 New York scratching their heads and planning vacations to dude ranches.”

By contrast, Goldstein wrote that New York “has been a lesson in how not to legalize.”

“Retailers are finally sprouting up around cities, but they can only sell licensed weed, much of which is schwag. Illegal smoke shops already sell great imported weed,” Goldstein wrote.

The state in the final ranking of #25 was Alaska, which Goldstein found had “dim prospects for interstate exports.”

“California has the lowest wholesale prices, at $150 per pound. Illinois’ lowest price in the same time period, by compari­son, is $1,555 – more than 10 times higher,” Goldstein also noted in his analysis. The state with the second-lowest cannabis wholesale prices was Michigan, he found.

Wholesale prices, however, were only one factor the economist analyzed; he also looked at retail prices in each state, a metric under which Oregon took the top spot, followed by Oklahoma and then Colorado.

But most importantly, the ranking list was determined by per capita economic potential, which gives more weight to states with smaller populations, like Oklahoma’s 4 million residents as opposed to California’s 39 million, combined with cheap production costs and other business expenses.

Goldstein_Where_Will_Weed_Win_2025-March_2025-2



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Alaska

Number of the Week: $366

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$366 – Average cannabis retail sales per resident in Alaska

Alaska may have a small population, and its total cannabis retail sales for the 12 months that ended in June might seem small, but the state leads the nation in sales per resident at $366 for that period. The second-place state, Michigan, is 11.5% behind with per capita sales of $324. The rankings reveal that Alaska’s sales have benefited from strong summertime tourism, while Michigan continues to grow consumer adoption through an expansion in the number of metro Detroit stores.

Source: LeafLink



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Alaska House of Representatives Approved Bill To Change Cannabis Taxes

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The Alaskan House of Representatives recently voted on May 10 in a 36-3 vote to approve a bill that implements much needed tax reform.

House Bill 119 would change its $50 per ounce tax on cannabis to just a 7% tax, which was a recommendation from an Advisory Task Force on Recreational Marijuana. If HB-119 passed in the Senate and was signed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy, it would take effect starting July 1, 2024.

Many cannabis business owners begged for relief from the current tax situation, according to a report from Alaska Beacon in September 2023. Alaska Marijuana Industry Association legislative liaison Lacy Wilcox described business owners’ situations as “desperate,” while she spoke with the House Labor and Commerce Committee last year. 

The $50 per ounce tax has been in place since Alaska adult-use cannabis was legalized in 2014. According to a report written by the Tax Policy Center, which was released in September 2022, Alaska has one of the highest cannabis taxes. “Alaska’s $50-per-ounce tax exceeds all other weight-based tax rates and the remainder was a local percentage-of-price excise tax (Anchorage),” the report stated.

As a result, many cannabis businesses have been forced to close. “We are all in survival mode, and we are coming together to share our pain with you,” Wilcox added.

One of the task force members who attended the committee meeting in September added that the high taxes makes it hard for legal businesses to compete with the illegal industry. “I can tell you with a high degree of certainty that [marijuana] is still much cheaper on the black market. Alaska’s taxes and the burden on businesses from the Marijuana Control Board is causing prices to stay high and businesses to be uncompetitive,” said task force co-chair Brandom Emmett. They presented an estimate that 40%-50% of cannabis sold in Alaska is from the black market.

The law’s current $50 per ounce tax applies just to cannabis flower, while lower taxes exist to apply to “immature/seed/failed” flower at $25 per ounce and trim at $15 per ounce, according to a fiscal analysis from the House Finance Committee published in April 2024. The report projected that Alaska’s legal cannabis industry has matured, with “total volumes will only grow at 1% per year going forward (FY 2025+),” and that current trends show that flower “will continue until stabilizing at 15% of total ounces.”

The Alaska Advisory Task Force on Recreational Marijuana was created by Gov. Dunleavy in September 2022, which was tasked to “review current marijuana tax and fee structures, regulations applicable to marijuana operators, and to provide recommendations for improvements to the Office of the Governor.”

The task force of 13 members met six times between December 2022 and January 2023 to discuss matters of tax reformation as well as adult-use businesses collaborating with state government and possible enhancements to public safety. The recommendations were published in a final report that was released in January 2024.

According to Alaska Beacon, originally the task force presented a 3% sales tax, but Rep. Jesse Sumner claimed that it was too low and instead proposed a 10% tax (this was later lowered to 6%, followed by the one percent amendment increase to 7% in the most recent House discussion). Sumner added that the current 7% tax proposal will be more enticing to the Senate for possible approval.

In its recommendation, the task force also proposed changes to seed-to-sale plant tracking as well as license fees.

Earlier this month, the House also approved House Bill 228 in a 36-4 vote, and if fully passed it would establish a task force to analyze psychedelic-assisted therapies such as psilocybin or MDMA. The sponsor of the bill, Rep. Jenny Armstrong, said that HB-228 is a bill that would adapt well to the possibility of the federal government rescheduling those substances. “This August, it is widely anticipated that FDA will approve the most significant medicine for the treatment of mental health in decades,” said Armstrong on May 2. “House Bill 228 before us today would create a task force that would put forth recommendations for the next legislature to consider as it relates to this treatment. Whether you are excited about the idea of psychedelics getting approved, you’re neutral or you’re flat-out against it, I think we can all agree that if it is coming, we should be prepared and be thoughtful in how we approach it.”

Alaska has the most veterans per capita compared to other states, and also has one of the highest rates of violence in the country.

Most House representatives were supportive of the bill, such as Rep. Laddie Shaw who formerly held the title of director of Alaskan Veteran Affairs. “This task force gives us an opportunity to move forward with some productivity on behalf of our veterans,” Shaw explained. “We haven’t done anything for the last 50 years. Let’s move forward with something.” However, some representatives who opposed the bill called it “premature,” and preferred to wait until the federal government has made moves to reschedule psychedelic substances with medical potential.



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