The Odds Of The Feds Making A 2025 Cannabis Change explored through politics, markets, and investor predictions.

As the races toward the finish line, investors, policy wonks and marijuana consumers are asking the same question: what are the odds of the Feds making a 2025 cannabis change? Short answer: possible, but far from certain — prediction markets and recent signals put the odds in the low-double digits, while loud political and legislative headwinds keep the outcome uncertain.

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Two dynamics are driving optimism. First, signals from the executive branch — including public comments from White House-adjacent figures and renewed attention from the administration — have signaled openness to reform, keeping the rescheduling conversation alive. Second, high-profile statements and advocacy (and even polling) have pushed cannabis onto the political agenda, prompting some lawmakers and officials to call for a clearer federal framework.

But the path to action is narrow. Key congressional players have moved to constrain agency flexibility: the House Appropriations Committee has advanced language aimed at blocking Department of Justice funding for reclassifying marijuana, a direct check on executive action. That kind of legislative resistance reduces the chance the DEA or DOJ can unilaterally reschedule this year.

The DEA’s own process and timing add more friction. Rescheduling entails administrative reviews, hearings and legal steps typically take months — and while the agency has periodically updated stakeholders, there’s no guarantee a final rule can be completed and implemented before year-end.

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Equities and cannabis ETFs have been volatile in response to policy chatter. Major pot names — Tilray, Canopy Growth, Cronos and others — have seen price swings tied to headlines, earnings and policy signals; some firms even reported notable gains after pro-reform statements and positive quarterly results. Market trackers and analysts continue to flag these stocks as sector plays to watch, but caution regulatory uncertainty keeps valuations jittery.

Combine a roughly 18% market-implied chance, vocal White House signals and strong investor interest, but also legislative pushback and a slow administrative process, and the most realistic forecast is modest odds of federal movement before December 31. In plain terms: meaningful federal change this year is possible — not impossible — but bettors and investors should expect bumps, delays and political counter-moves rather than a clean, guaranteed policy win.

The High Times Cannabis Cup has come a long way since its scrappy beginnings in 1988. Born in Amsterdam’s smoky coffeeshops and now blossoming into a global competition judged by everyday fans, the Cup’s history is as colorful as cannabis culture itself. As High Times gears up for its New York Cannabis Cup in 2025, it is the perfect time to look back on how this competition became the world championship of weed.

The Cup Takes Root in Amsterdam

Amsterdam’s tolerant cannabis culture made it the perfect birthplace for the High Times Cannabis Cup in 1988.

In late-1980s Amsterdam, High Times launched a small invitational to celebrate the best cannabis on the planet. The city’s unique tolerance system let people gather openly and judge the year’s standouts in public. In November 1988, the inaugural Cannabis Cup took place and set the tone for what would become an annual tradition. High Times’ Amsterdam retrospective captures those early days and why the format fit the moment.

That first Cup was a humble affair by today’s standards. Only a handful of Dutch seed companies entered, and a small panel of judges weighed the entries. Among the earliest voices around the Cup were High Times editor Steven Hager and longtime columnist and cultivation educator Ed Rosenthal. History was made when Skunk #1, entered by Cultivator’s Choice, took the top honors. Soon after, breeder Nevil Schoenmakers of The Seed Bank acquired Cultivator’s Choice and went on to capture the following Cups with his own work. High Times’ hybrid history outlines how those wins echoed through modern genetics.

High Times in the High Country: 1990s Expansion

In the early 1990s, the Cup evolved from a niche gathering into a full-fledged cultural event. A U.S. crackdown on seed companies pushed parts of the scene further underground, and the 1991 Cup leaned into an Amsterdam coffeeshop crawl. For the first time, members of the public joined judging for coffeeshop entries. About 50 civilian judges voted that year, and the people’s pick landed. The door was open for fans to help crown champions.

Opening the judging did more than make the Cup fun. It shaped the industry. “Many coffeeshops and seed companies were made by winning the Cannabis Cup,” recalls High Times cultivation editor Danny Danko. A first-place trophy could turn an unknown breeder into an overnight draw. Amsterdam institutions like Green House and Barney’s became destination stops thanks to multiple wins and a friendly rivalry. Up-and-coming seed outfits got on the map after big results, with U.S.-based Rare Dankness and the U.K.’s Big Buddha Seeds among the success stories.

Competition also pushed innovation. The desire to win drove flavor hunts, higher potency, and better craft. The 1990s minted strains that still define the menu. White Widow clinched the 1995 Cup for Green House and reset expectations for resin. By 1998–99, Super Silver Haze ruled sativa. A decade later its citrusy offspring Super Lemon Haze made history as a back-to-back champion in 2008 and 2009. As genetics went global, the Cup kept spotlighting future classics, from Skunk #1 to Tangie in 2013.

By the mid-’90s, the Cannabis Cup was as much a cultural happening as a competition. High Times layered in a yearly salute to the movement’s architects with a Hall of Fame segment during Cup week, honoring figures whose work shaped the culture. The parties were part of the legend too. Shows at Amsterdam’s Melkweg brought hip-hop, rock, and reggae into the mix, with lineups that gave Cup nights a soundtrack fans still talk about. For many, the annual pilgrimage to Amsterdam became a high holiday.

End of an Era, Crackdowns and Change

Nothing gold stays. By the 2010s, the Amsterdam Cannabis Cup was under new pressure. On November 23, 2011, Dutch police raided the Cup expo, the first time authorities stepped into the event’s space. Cannabis was still tolerated, but a tougher political mood had taken hold. Officers enforced possession limits and seized personal stashes. No attendees were ultimately charged, but the message landed.

High Times kept the Cup in the Netherlands a little longer, yet planning got harder each year. In 2014, after 27 consecutive editions, Amsterdam’s run effectively wrapped. Stricter enforcement around drug tourism and gray-area supply made the old model harder to stage, while new legal markets in the United States were opening their doors. The Cup returned to Amsterdam for special editions in 2017 and 2018, but 2014 stands as the end of the continuous Amsterdam chapter as the spotlight shifted stateside.

The Cannabis Cup Comes to America

Before Amsterdam’s finale, the Cup had already started taking its show on the road. 2010 was a turning point. High Times launched the first U.S. events with a Medical Cannabis Cup in San Francisco. It was a natural move as America’s medical scene grew. In 2012, voters in Colorado and Washington approved adult-use. By 2014, Colorado had the first recreational shops, and in 2015 Denver hosted the first fully legal recreational High Times Cup. Adults 21 and over could attend, purchase products, and participate without a medical card. That same year a World Cannabis Cup in Jamaica brought the competition to the spiritual home of ganja.

Through the late 2010s, High Times staged Cups across legal markets from California to Colorado, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Illinois, Nevada, and more. What began as an underground meetup in Amsterdam grew into a roadshow that mirrored legalization. Each regional Cup kept the spirit of the original while letting local scenes shine.

People’s Choice, A New Era

In 2020, the pandemic shut down large events. High Times pivoted to the People’s Choice Edition. Instead of crowded expo halls, the Cup reinvented the competition for an at-home experience and opened judging to everyday consumers via exclusive judge kits sold at dispensaries. Rather than a small expert panel, hundreds of local judges score entries from home. In statewide contests, roughly 228 judge kits per category are offered and tend to sell out fast.

The crowdsourced model democratized the Cup. Fans who never thought they would smoke a full Cup lineup now help decide who wins. Swapping concert stages for scorecards kept the competition alive and true to its roots.

2025, The Cup Comes Home to New York

In 2025, the Cup reaches another milestone. For the first time, High Times is hosting a Cannabis Cup in New York, and it is a People’s Choice edition open to the public. It is on track to be the largest People’s Choice Cannabis Cup to date. For a brand that got its start in New York in the 1970s, bringing the Cup to the Empire State feels full-circle.

As the Cannabis Cup enters its next chapter, it carries the legacy of all that came before, the early Amsterdam pioneers, the strains and personalities that defined cannabis history, and the community of enthusiasts who push it forward. From a small room of judges in 1988 to a statewide People’s Choice in 2025, the Cup reflects the broader journey of cannabis itself. Once underground, now on top of the world, and still a lot of fun. In true High Times fashion, the Cup continues to evolve without losing its cool. As New York’s People’s Choice kicks off, coffeeshop crawls give way to deli runs and tulip joints to bodega blunts. One thing remains constant. The Cannabis Cup is where cannabis history is made, one puff at a time.

As bicameral lawmakers work to reach a deal on provisions for federal spending legislation, including how to settle an increasingly contentious debate about hemp products, competing interests are making their voices heard on how they think Congress should handle the issue.

To that end, a GOP senator is hoping to replace a proposed ban on hemp THC products with alternate language mandating a study into state regulatory models for consumable cannabinoids, while a group of state attorneys general are taking steps to urge Republican leadership to move ahead with an outright prohibition on intoxicating products.

While the House has not yet passed its version of the agriculture spending bill, the Senate version was combined into a so-called minibus with appropriations legislation that also covers defense and the legislative branch. Last month, House leadership requested a conference committee and appointed negotiators, despite not having advanced its own companion bill through the chamber.

The Senate hasn’t appointed its conferees, and no formal meetings have taken place so far, but it’s reported that appropriators have been informally discussing relevant issues. And one GOP senator is angling to get ahead of the negotiations around hemp.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)—a longstanding champion of cannabis reform who previously blocked a hemp ban from being included in an agriculture appropriations bill passed by the Senate earlier this year—is circulating legislative language, obtained by Marijuana Moment, that he’s asking to be adopted as part of the final package.

It would require the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to study “best practices” for regulating intoxicating cannabinoid products and submit a report on its findings to Congress.

Here’s the full language: 

“SEC.____. STUDY ON HEMP BEST PRACTICES.

Not later than 18 months after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with States, shall conduct, and submit to Congress a report on the results of, a study on best practices of States relating to regulation of hemp-derived products for home and personal use.”

Marijuana Moment reached out to Paul’s office for comment, but a representative was not immediately available.

The agriculture appropriations measure the Senate passed as part of a package over the summer initially contained provisions hemp industry stakeholders said would effectively eradicate the market by banning consumable hemp products with any “quantifiable” amount of THC. But after the measure came out of committee, Paul threatened to hold up its passage over the issue, and the language was removed.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who ushered in the federal legalization of hemp under the 2018 Farm Bill, championed the THC criminalization language and took to the floor to criticize those who opposed the ban, including Paul.

McConnell isn’t the only one vying for a renewed prohibition. A group of state attorneys general is circulating a draft letter addressed to GOP leaders in the House and Senate Appropriations and Agriculture committees that calls for the inclusion of the ban because, they say, the currently Farm Bill “wrongly exploited by bad actors to sell recreational synthetic THC products across the country.”

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The draft document omits the names of the signatories, but the content cites data from Indiana—and the Republican state attorney general there, Todd Rokita, previously led a separate letter with 20 of his counterparts from other states urging Congress to take action on intoxicating cannabinoid products.

“We ask that Congress clarify the federal definition of hemp during the Fiscal Year 2026 appropriations process or through the reauthorization of the Farm Bill to leave no doubt that these harmful products are illegal and that their sale and manufacture are criminal acts,” the new draft letter, obtained by Marijuana Moment, says.

Hemp industry stakeholders “have nefariously misinterpreted the Farm Bill’s legalization of low concentrations of hemp-derived delta-9 and the Bill’s silence regarding hemp-derived THC products other than delta-9 to claim that the Farm Bill allows them to produce and sell various synthetic cannabinoids regardless of the chemicals’ potency and psychoactive effects,” it says. “In this way, legal, nonintoxicating hemp is used to make Frankenstein THC products that get adults high and harm and even kill children.”

“We commend your commitment to American farmers and your work to create an orderly and well-regulated market for industrial hemp and non-intoxicating hemp-derived products. You should not allow irresponsible corporations to take advantage of your good work to purvey dangerous products in our States. We ask Congress to act decisively to clarify the Farm Bill’s definition of hemp to ensure intoxicating THC products are taken off the market.”

Rokita’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Marijuana Moment.

The House agriculture spending bill, as approved by the Appropriations Committee, included provisions banning consumable hemp products with any “quantifiable” amount of THC, though it has not been taken up on the floor.

Hemp stakeholders are unsure where the issue will land as lawmakers attempt to finalize appropriations legislation, but they’re calling on supporters to contact their representatives and make their opposition to a blanket ban clear.

“The truth is that no one really knows what any final draft would look like, and it is equally uncertain as to whether a minibus itself will see the light of day,” the U.S. Hemp Roundtable said in an email blast.

“If you have not yet alerted your customers, associates, friends and social media contacts that the prospects of a hemp ban are real, NOW IS THE TIME,” it says. “We have an opportunity to kill this, but we are running out of time.”

Meanwhile, Paul recently filed a standalone bill that would go in the opposite direction of the hemp ban, proposing to triple the concentration of THC that the crop could legally contain, while addressing multiple other concerns the industry has expressed about federal regulations.

The senator introduced the legislation, titled the Hemp Economic Mobilization Plan (HEMP) Act, in June. It mirrors versions he’s sponsored over the last several sessions.

Read the text of the state attorneys general draft letter on hemp below: 

Photo courtesy of Brendan Cleak.