As another cannabis earnings season winds down, Green Market Report‘s Executive Editor Debra Borchardt spoke with CNBC market strategist Tim Seymour, who is also the founder and chief investment officer of Seymour Asset Management, about the overall tone of the company reports and what the results could signal about the future.
This interview was edited for length and clarity.
Some of the biggest MSOs reported earnings last week, and I’m curious to hear what you thought. We had a lot of big companies report rising revenue, which was great. However, we also continue to see significant losses. What was your overall feeling from last week?
Tim Seymour: I guess I’m going to go half-full on my glass. Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTIBF), I think their EBITDA dynamics and their free cash flow and ultimately their margin levels continue to be best in class, and I think for the most part they’re focusing on their retail expansion and endeavors in Florida. Obviously, Ohio is a big deal, so I was reasonably happy there.
You look at some of the others, like Cresco Labs (OTC: CRLBF), ultimately I think the numbers were consistent with the guide. In Cresco’s case, they really trade at a significant discount to a GTI, but for the most part, the operating free cash flow was impressive. The ability to hold margin was impressive.
It’s not growth at all costs, and it has not been that way for probably six to eight quarters. I think those numbers are fine.
So I’m choosing to take some positives from the fact that the companies are getting better at their core businesses. I think looking at the macro around the sector, there’s obviously been a ton of speculation about follow through, not only on the federal stuff, but where we are going state-by-state.
Where will the next catalyst lie now that Ohio is up and running? That sate certainly seems to be a place that a lot of the big five say are really focused on and talked a lot about how important it’s going to be to their sales profile.
We did have a few operators, like Jushi (OTC: JUSHF) and Canopy Growth (NASDAQ: CGC), where we saw them slip.
Seymour: I think you’re seeing separation from the folks who actually have some flexibility and the folks that really don’t have much wiggle room – or maybe they’re positioned in markets that are less exposed to some of the exciting growth.
For investors, you do have some relative value and performance comparison dynamics that I think are very interesting. Each company’s had different places where they’ve told you that a market is struggling a bit and where they may be conceding that this is a place they’re not going to be spending as much of their resources.
The strength in New Jersey is obviously very important for a handful of these companies as well, and that data showed that New Jersey is absolutely getting a fresh ramp up in terms of where more facilities and sales are coming online. That along with Maryland offers a case that the East Coast has largely been pretty solid.
We haven’t seen new capital come into this space. I think the fundamentals continue to get better. My argument is always that, state-by-state, we’re getting further down the road every year. And ultimately, who knows what’s going to happen in November? But we do know for sure that there are going to be more representatives from red states in Washington that have constituencies that care about cannabis.
Any concern about the debt restructurings we’ve seen where companies are extending the maturities? The thing that concerns me there is, okay, so you bought yourself some time, but is a year or two really going to make that much difference?
Seymour: Lenders in most cases are not looking to be exerting undue pressure. I don’t think the loan-to-own mentality is where a lot of the lenders out there sit. I think for the most part it’s a dynamic where the operating environment is certainly one of more rationalization, and I think truly everybody is partnered here.
I think you hit the nail on the head. I think that the people that wanted to loan-to-own have already done so, and the other ones really don’t want to take your company.
Seymour: There’s no question that was a strategy in the early cannabis days. But no, I think there’s more access to capital. I think there is certainly an opportunity for nontraditional lenders which don’t have to be cannabis-specific lenders.
But then I get into my CNBC thought, which says, if rates are really coming down, we might have big issues another way in terms of the economy and back to cannabis sales and the cannabis consumer. And the reality is that this is still in many circles a discretionary item. So if we saw a significant fall in interest rates, it would probably be due to economic retrenchment. And that’s something that’s not going to be great for the cannabis sector.
We’ve still got some big cannabis companies coming up this week. We’ve got Glass House (OTC: GLASF), 4Front Ventures (OTC: FFNTF) and Gold Flora (OTC: GRAM), for example. Any that you’re watching?
Seymour: I’ll just quickly touch on Glass House. I still think their thesis around being the low-cost producer of high-quality product and flower is something that ultimately will win out. I think they’ve done a solid job of navigating the capital markets world to give themselves the powder.
I think the view is that they will be a survivor and someone that will thrive in California. I think they’re reasonably well positioned to at least get through this period with the kind of operating leverage to their business that I think is going to prove out to be very strong in the long run.